In the last six seasons, five different teams have won the MAC West. The only team that hasn’t, Eastern Michigan, came achingly close in 2018. This division doesn’t quite feature ACC Coastal-level parity, but it’s close. Nearly everybody gets a turn at the top.
That makes it awfully hard to project this division on a year-to-year basis. Last year’s winner, Northern Illinois, flipped from 0-6 in 2020 to 9-5, and this year’s projected champion, Toledo, has lost eight of its last nine one-score finishes. Not the most trustworthy entity. We’ve come to expect the unexpected in the land of MACtion, but let’s see what we can figure out about this year’s West division.
Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 131 FBS teams. The previews will include 2021 breakdowns, 2022 previews and burning questions for each team.
Earlier previews: MWC West | MWC Mountain | AAC (Nos. 6-11) | AAC (Nos. 1-5) | MAC East
2021 recap
SP+ projected a ridiculously tight West race last season, with every team projected within two conference wins of each other. That’s exactly what played out: All six teams finished between 4-4 and 6-2, with Northern Illinois and Central Michigan leading the way with a combined 8-2 MAC record in one-score finishes.
Naturally, then, a 39-38 NIU win in Mount Pleasant gave the Huskies the division edge. The Huskies then played their best game of the season in Detroit, stomping Kent State to win their sixth MAC title and fifth in 11 years.
Elsewhere, Toledo finished 56th in SP+ but figured out how to lose tight games to everyone from Notre Dame (32-29) to Middle Tennessee (31-24) and finished 7-6. Western Michigan and CMU boasted upside, exciting offenses and bottom-40 defenses that held them back before lovely bowl performances. Eastern Michigan made its fourth bowl in six years but faltered down the stretch due to miserable defensive play. And Ball State, the 2020 MAC champion, eked out a bowl bid like everyone else but lost four games by 20-plus points, then lost a truckload of veterans to graduation.
2022 projections
Toledo heads into 2022 with most of the key pieces from last year’s brilliant defense, plus quarterback Dequan Finn, who is no longer a freshman. Some new offensive starters will determine whether Jason Candle’s squad is ready for the comfortable division title run that SP+ projects. If they aren’t, then some usual suspects — CMU, NIU, WMU — await to make this another tight race.
Burning questions
Is NIU’s championship recipe replicable? It’s pretty tempting to stick Thomas Hammock’s Huskies in the “lucky as hell, guaranteed to fall back to the pack” bucket this season. They won six regular-season MAC games by a combined 25 points and lost two by a combined 26. Even quarterback Rocky Lombardi leaned into the team’s propensity for leaving everything to chance until the last minute.
Come check out your Heart Attack Huskies this fall! https://t.co/nOkOnNmOQ6
— Rocky Lombardi (@rocky_lombardi) February 25, 2022
Their defense ranked a dreadful 117th in points allowed per drive, and their offense has to replace some key pieces in 1,100-yard running back Jevyon Ducker, lead blocker/short-yardage back Clint Ratkovich and all-conference center Brayden Patteon. Plus, Lady Luck doesn’t usually smile on the same team twice in a row.
On the other hand, some teams do fare better in close situations if they boast a particularly strong recipe of quality quarterbacking, proper situational play and reliable kicking. NIU still has all of that. Lombardi returns after throwing for 2,597 yards and 15 touchdowns. He averaged 5.9 yards per non-sack carry and avoided pressure beautifully.
NIU avoided negative plays and did as good a job as anyone of both creating short fourth downs and converting them. They ranked 20th in FBS with 30 fourth-down attempts, and they ranked second in converting 83% of them. While the defense wasn’t good for much, it did get off the field after creating third-and-longs, and it ranked 24th in allowing just a 41% fourth-down conversion rate. Is that enormous +42% margin on fourth downs converted and stopped sustainable? No, but a positive margin certainly is.
(Also, John Richardson returns after going 6-for-8 on field goals longer than 40 yards.)
Backs Harrison Waylee and Antario Brown were even more explosive than Ducker (and equally efficient) when given opportunities, and ultra-reliable slot receivers Trayvon Rudolph and Cole Tucker are scheduled to return. This is a physical and impressive offense. And that dreadful defense? It gave at least 140 snaps to 16 freshmen or redshirt freshmen, including seven linemen. Experience doesn’t automatically make a bad unit good, but it usually makes it better.
This team will probably improve on paper, but that close-game performance was a little too good to repeat. The Huskies don’t start out as favorites to repeat, but they won’t need too many breaks to give themselves a shot.
What’s standing in Toledo’s way? Over the last 11 seasons, Toledo has ranked first in the MAC in SP+ six times. The Rockets also have played in just one MAC championship game in that span, winning it in 2017. After a stumble in 2019 — they plummeted to 114th in SP+, 121st on defense — head coach Jason Candle brought in former Mount Union coach Vince Kehres as defensive coordinator and longtime sacks creator Craig Kuligowski as co-coordinator and DL coach. Toledo surged to 21st in defensive SP+ last fall. The Rockets were 14th in sack rate and 16th in overall havoc rate (TFLs, passes defensed and forced fumbles divided by total plays).
Toledo is creating all of the disruption Candle could hope for, but while the Rockets have gone 10-2 in games decided by more than one score over the last two seasons, they’re 1-7 in the close ones. They lost three MAC games by a combined eight points.
Toledo struggled in all of the tight-game categories in which NIU thrived. Quarterback Dequan Finn was excellent for a freshman, but the Rockets were 97th in third-down conversion rate and 99th on fourth downs. And kicker Thomas Cluckey was just 14-for-24 on field goals, 4-for-11 outside of 40 yards.
The defense should be outstanding. Six of the seven players with at least six TFLs last season return, led by outside linebacker Jamal Hines (19 TFLs, 10 sacks). The Rockets will miss corner Samuel Womack and linebacker Jonathan Jones, but the front six is rich with both playmakers and experience, and the secondary will no longer be relying on two freshmen in the starting lineup.
Finn is more experienced too, and he’s got slot man Devin Maddox, big-play receiver Matt Landers and four of six primary linemen back. He does lose explosive running back Bryant Koback (1,400 yards, 6.7 per carry). Finn is an excellent scrambler and designed runner, but sophomores Micah Kelly and Jacquez Stuart and big Maryland transfer Peny Boone will need to raise their games to keep him from getting hit too much. If the offense is a bit more situationally reliable, the Rockets could have a huge season — they’re projected favorites in 11 of 12 games, per SP+. But they should have done better over the last two years, too.
Which unit rebuilds better, the WMU offense or CMU’s defense? Both WMU and CMU passed the eye test in 2021. The Broncos beat ACC champion Pitt early in the season and proved explosive on both sides of the ball — their defense was third in sack rate and fifth in havoc rate, running back Sean Tyler averaged 6.5 yards per carry, and a trio of receivers (Skyy Moore, Corey Crooms, Jaylen Hall) combined to average 15.2 yards per catch. CMU was awfully similar: sixth in havoc rate with all the requisite offensive explosiveness from running back Lew Nichols III and receivers Kalil Pimpleton, JaCorey Sullivan and Dallas Dixon. After a 2-3 start, the Chippewas won six of seven down the stretch, including three wins by 20-plus points and a Sun Bowl upset of Washington State in which they looked like the more athletic and physical team.
Both Tim Lester (WMU) and Jim McElwain (CMU) are building rosters that look the part of power-conference teams. Whether they are West contenders this year will depend on how quickly they can rebuild specific units.
WMU must replace quarterback Kaleb Eleby, two all-conference linemen and four of the six players with double-digit targets, including a potential second-day draft pick in Moore. In Tyler and 235-pound La’Darius Jefferson, the Broncos still have a thunder-and-lightning running back duo in the backfield, and Crooms is explosive. But new weapons will have to emerge, along with a new starting quarterback, be it last year’s backup Jack Salopek, Alabama transfer Stone Hollenbach or someone else.
For CMU, the bigger changes come on D. The offense must replace Pimpleton and Sullivan and two all-conference tackles, but quarterback Daniel Richardson, Nichols and Dixon return, along with 2020’s starting running back, Kobe Lewis. But ends Troy Hairston II and Amir Siddiq (combined: 38 TFLs, 12 sacks) are gone, as are the Chippewas’ two leading linebackers and top three safeties. That’s a lot to lose in one offseason. If either CMU or WMU exceeds expectations in their rebuilt units, they’ll contend.
Has Chris Creighton topped out at EMU? First things first: Making .500 feel slightly disappointing at EMU is a miracle. The Eagles hadn’t enjoyed a winning record since 1995 before Creighton, the former Drake head coach, took over in 2014, and they hadn’t been to a bowl since 1987. They won a total of 15 games in the seven seasons before 2016’s breakthrough, when they went 7-6 and went to the Bahamas Bowl. They’ve managed three more bowl appearances since then, not to mention three wins over Big Ten opponents.
Since peaking in 2018 with the 7-6 team that finished 86th in SP+ and nearly won the West, though, the Eagles have regressed. They’ve ranked between 101st and 107th all three seasons, and last year’s 7-6 season was stained by blowout losses to CMU and Liberty to end the season. Quarterback Ben Bryant transferred back to Cincinnati after throwing for 3,121 yards in a one-year cameo, and while veteran Troy transfer Taylor Powell arrives to take his place and most of the receiving corps returns, Bryant set the efficiency bar high.
The bigger concern is on a defense that has averaged a No. 122 ranking in defensive SP+ for three seasons. Fourteen of 22 players with 200-plus snaps return, but outside of edge rusher Jose Ramirez there are almost no proven playmakers. The offense will give the Eagles a shot at a bowl, but defense should again weigh them down, and 2018 is beginning to feel pretty far away in the rearview mirror.
Can Mike Neu build it all over again? Ball State’s 2020 MAC title proved the benefits of patience. In 2016, Neu took over a flagging Cardinals program and won just 10 games in three years thanks to injury issues and multiple youth movements. But they took a definitive step forward to 5-7 and 86th in SP+ in 2019, then thrived in the COVID-shortened 2020, going 7-1 and ranking 73rd.
The Cardinals returned massive experience last fall, but the breaks went a different way, and offensive line injuries became an issue. Quality wins over Army, WMU and EMU were promising, but the Cardinals lost three of their last four and got stomped by Georgia State in the Camellia Bowl. Now quarterback Drew Plitt, longtime star receiver Justin Hall and all-conference guard Curtis Blackwell are gone, along with six of eight snaps leaders at linebacker, the top three defensive backs and two of the top three linemen.
Defensive end Tavion Woodard and linebacker Clayton Coll are solid, but depth could be an issue in the defensive front seven, and the secondary is full of seniors but bereft of playmakers. Receivers Jayshon Jackson and Yo’Heinz Tyler are solid, running back Carson Steele is efficient, and potential new starting quarterback John Paddock has gotten his feet wet through the years, but the offense doesn’t have many proven big-play guys. After a step backward in 2021, it feels another one might be on the way. Can Neu plant the seeds of another potential MAC champion during a down year? Will the school remain patient with him if said down year comes?
My 10 favorite players
QB Daniel Richardson, CMU. Washington transfer and former blue-chipper Jacob Sirmon began 2021 as CMU’s starter, but Richardson won the job back and led the Chips on a late-season run. What he lacks in stature (he’s 5 foot 10), he makes up for in play-making ability.
RB Lew Nichols III, CMU. Over his last eight games, Nichols averaged 32 carries and 180 rushing yards per game and caught 25 passes as well. That’s absurd, though we’ll see if CMU can find some weapons to take some of the load off of him.
Slot Trayvon Rudolph, NIU. Rudolph caught 51 passes at 17.5 yards per reception, caught 14 balls for 309 yards (!!!) in one game in November and returned a kickoff for a touchdown in an 8-point win over Bowling Green. In a division full of great slot men, he stands out.
Slot Hassan Beydoun, EMU. Another slot worth mentioning, Beydoun had 12 catches for 197 yards in the win over Toledo. In his last 19 collegiate games, he’s averaging 7.7 catches and 86.1 yards per game.
LG Jacob Gideon, WMU. A two-star redshirt freshman, Gideon put in a performance worthy of first-team all-MAC status per Pro Football Focus. He led a rock solid line with just a 1.1% blown block rate.
DE Desjuan Johnson and OLB Jamal Hines, Toledo. What a duo. These seniors-to-be combined for 33 tackles for loss, 14.5 sacks and 43 run stops (at or behind the line) in 2021. Toledo has a front six that would make a lot of Power 5 teams would be jealous.
LB Clayton Coll, Ball State. The 235-pound strong-side linebacker generated pressure on 15% of his pass rushes and defensed four passes (two INTs, two breakups) in coverage. He’s rock solid, and he’ll be asked to clean up a lot of messes with inexperienced pieces around him.
CB Dorian Jackson, WMU. Opponents kept testing the St. Francis transfer in 2021, and it usually turned out poorly. He allowed just a 35.2 QBR as the primary coverage guy, and he picked off two passes with 12 breakups.
CB Jordan Gandy, NIU. Another FCS transfer, the former South Dakota State corner allowed a 43.9 QBR in coverage, broke up 11 passes and recorded four TFLs and three run stops. He’s just 5-10 and 180 pounds, but he’s not afraid to get dirty near the line.
Anniversaries
In 1987, 35 years ago, EMU won 10 games. EMU has won just one conference title in the last 64 years, and it came from Jim Harkema’s best team. After a 4-2 start, the Eagles (then the Hurons) caught fire down the stretch and beat San Jose State, 30-27, in the California Bowl. It is still the program’s only bowl win in 47 years of top-division football, though with three bowl losses by a combined 10 points, they’ve come awfully close under Creighton.
In 1997, 25 years ago, Toledo reached the first MAC championship game. The Rockets finished with a winning record in each of Gary Pinkel’s last seven seasons in charge — he is the winningest coach in both Toledo’s and Missouri’s respective histories — and while their peak came with an 11-0-1 campaign in 1995, they also won the first MAC West title and reached 18th in the AP poll with an 8-0 start in 1997.
Unfortunately for the Rockets, in the conference’s first title game, they got Moss’d: Randy Moss caught seven balls for 170 yards and three touchdowns, and the Thundering Herd turned a 7-3 deficit into a 34-14 win.
In 2007, 15 years ago, Dan Lefevour pulled a 3,000/1,000. In their first season under Butch Jones (who succeeded Cincinnati-bound Brian Kelly), the Chippewas won their second straight MAC title thanks in part to one of the first true dual-threat dynamos. Just seven years after Clemson’s Woody Dantzler became the first quarterback to throw for 2,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in a season, Lefevour, a sophomore, threw for 3,652 and rushed for 1,122.
CMU started the season 1-3 but rebounded, winning seven of its next nine games, stomping Miami (Ohio) in the MAC championship game and losing to Curtis Painter and Purdue by only a last-second field goal in the Motor City Bowl.
Also in 2007, Brady Hoke’s Ball State rebuild took root. BSU was mired in a dreadful funk when Hoke took over in 2003. The Cardinals had won just 22 games in six years following 1996’s Las Vegas Bowl run and won only 15 games in Hoke’s first four seasons. But as it did in 2020, patience paid off. Nate Davis threw for 3,667 yards and 30 touchdowns as they won their last three conference games and nearly beat No. 24 Nebraska on their way to a 7-6 campaign. It was their best season in a decade, but they would quickly top it by racing to a 12-0 start and reaching 12th in the AP poll in 2008. They were upset by Buffalo in Detroit, and Hoke left for San Diego State, but their Hoke peak was awfully impressive.
In 2012, 10 years ago, NIU made the Orange Bowl. From 2010-14, NIU enjoyed the most sustained run of success a MAC team has seen in the 2000s. The Huskies won at least 11 games each season, taking five straight West titles (they’d make it six straight with a lesser team in 2015) and winning the conference three times. But the peak came in 2012, when quarterback Jordan Lynch threw for 3,138 yards and rushed for 1,815 more — an almost incomprehensible combination — and Dave Doeren’s second squad won 12 straight games, beating Kent State in overtime to reach 12-1, and snared a BCS bowl bid against the next season’s national champion, Florida State.
Despite losing Doeren to NC State in the interim, the Huskies acquitted themselves well in the Orange Bowl, trailing one of the most talented teams in the country by only a 17-10 margin before FSU put the game away with two touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
In 2017, five years ago, WMU brought Tim Lester home. As WMU’s starting quarterback, Lester threw for 11,299 yards and 87 touchdowns from 1996-99. As head coach, he was given the impossible task of succeeding P.J. Fleck after WMU’s 2016 Cotton Bowl run and top-15 finish. He hasn’t achieved those heights, but his Broncos have seen a steady success, achieving bowl eligibility every year and fielding a top-40 offense for two straight years.